No Silver Bullet: Essence and Accidents of Software Engineering is a widely discussed paper on software engineering. It argues that there is no single development which by itself guarantees even one order of magnitude improvement within a decade in productivity, in reliability and in simplicity. There is no way we see similar in hardware development where there is two-fold gains every two years.
It is a long article but nevertheless interesting.
No Silver Bullet: Essence and Accidents of Software Engineering [via]
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